Last Year's Results

Its always a good idea to know what you're up against so Saturday afternoon while I awaited the Washing Machine to either finally break or start working again, I thought I'd check out the actual results for last years IRONMAN Wales. (You can find the details here).

(I was going to work out some very tenuous percentages for this article to see what percentage of people do Ironman and how many complete. And I may do that later but as I start to do so I realised how incredibly fortunate I am to be even contemplating doing Ironman from a physical, financial and situational positions.)

Last year 2085 people entered Ironman Wales. So far I know 1 person who has signed up for an ironman distance race officially, and going by my Facebook page I know about 350 people. So let's say about 0.3% of people sign up.

So by signing up you are already 3 in a 1000. However looking at these results not everyone started and certainly not everyone finished.  Of the 2085 entrants, 445 either didn't start or did not finish. Only 1640/2086 finished, that's around 79%. So people who enter and finish Ironmans are 47 in every 20,000, that's 0.235%. So we're up against the odds already. However both me and Dan are stubborn, so let's assume our sheer bloody mindedness and terror will allow us to be on the 0.235%, how are our precdicted times going to hold up.



The winning time was

0:51:54

05:03:29

03:04:44

09:07:28

That's under 52 minutes to swim 2.4 miles, 112 Miles on Bike in just over 5 hours, and a Marathon in just over 3 hours.
Average speed of the winner, Matt Trautman. Congratulations Matt.

2.8mph Swim,22.4mph bike and 8.8mph run.

Let's compare that to me and Dan's predictions:

Rhys: 1.6 mph Swim 14.94mph bike  4.37 mph run
Dan:   1.6 mph Swim 18.67 mph bike 4.03mph

So with our predictions, we aint going to win. Quelle Suprise. But where will we come if we do as well as we hope. (I've left the DNF/DNS in for this, without the figures will skew higher, as I can't work out how to remove them easily)

The Median Swim speed is 1.75mph
The Median Bike speed is 16.61mph
The Media Run speed is 5.86mph
Median Total Time 14 hr 5min 55 secs.

Going by these figures, neither of us will be in the top 50% of the pack but remember just finishing puts us in the top 0.235%. Even just signing up will put us in the top 0.3%.

If you've any comments or have better maths to apply to this, please do so in the comment box below.

Predictions and Expectations

Rhys' Predictions

As we begin this endeavour, I've a few worries about what's to come but I'm saving those for another post. This will deal with my expectations of the process and the race.

Let's get it out of the way now, I fully expect Dan to trounce me on the IRONMAN. However, I always say these endurance events are about beating yourself and the course, not your mates. (Be Prepared for me to fully retract that last statement at any point that I overtake Dan at anything).

Time wise for the Ironman, I've done a bit of research and found these Average Split Times, which has got me bricking it. I've a feeling I'll be below average and its going to be hilly. So here's my predictions:

Swim: 90 Minutes
Bike:  7.5 Hours
Marathon: 6 Hours
Transition: 20 Mins (That's a long transition)
Grand Total: 15 hrs 20 minutes (1hr 40minutes to spare)

As for the process, I'm expecting to have to sacrifice something to get all the training I'll need in. And I may have to start going for early morning swims, which as anyone who knows me will vouch, I'm not a morning person. Also expecting to lose some more weight then plop it back on as Muscle, as I'm just starting to look at the nutrition side. But at least for tonight, it's pizza.

Dan's Predictions

The more I research IRONMAN and what it takes to compete, the more anxieties and doubts I have. But as Rhys mentioned above, these worries deserve a post of their own at a later date.

So what about my expectations for the race and the training process involved? Well, I'll start by agreeing and disagreeing with Rhys. I agree, it is important to run your own race; focus on achieving your personal goals and not to worry about the other competitors. However, I disagree with Rhys' prediction that I am going to 'trounce' him. I can assure you there will be no 'trouncing' involved. My belief is that when the race day comes, Rhys and I will be starting on a par and if I'm honest, my main hope for the event is that we both finish. That being said, It's still a race and myself and Rhys are fairly competitive people so place your bets!

As for a rough prediction of times, I too have done a fair amount of research into this. The cut off times for each discipline have got me a little worried to say the least and knowing how hilly the course is, I'll be happy just to complete the race in one piece. So this is what I'm aiming for:


Swim: 90 minutes
There is a 1km run from the swim to the transition with one nasty hill, so this will add 5-7 minutes.

Bike: 6 Hours (I'm being ambitious here)

Marathon: 6.5 hours

Transition: 15 Minutes

My Grand Total: 14hrs 20mins

To be honest, even if I finish at 16 hours 59 minutes I'll be over the moon.


On to the process leading up to IRONMAN. Rhys said it earlier, sacrifices will have to be made if we are to have any chance of success. The ridiculously early morning training is becoming a distinct possibility and like my teammate, I'm not so good in the mornings. Also, a few tweaks in diet and nutrition is a must to get the best out of my training. Alongside all of this, is how to cover the cost of all the equipment needed. A lot to think about, so one step at a time seems the best approach. After all, 21 months is plenty of time....right?