So over month ago, I made my predictions for my Swashbuckler times. Its been awhile now since the race so let's get geeky and see how they all panned out.
Before we go looking into the numbers, just a quick update on how they were measured. Swashbuckler didn't have separate transition timing so the minute breakdown of the race will be slightly inaccurate. It should be close enough though.
Here's a quick reminder of my predictions.
Swim: 50 minutes
T1:5 Minutes
Bike: 3 hrs 36 minutes
T2: 2 Minutes
Run: 2hr 30 minutes
Total: 7 hours 3 minutes
Actual Total Time: 7 hrs 55 minutes 40.15 seconds
I missed my aimed for time by over 12%, nearly an entire hour. I also missed what was the cut off time of 7.5 hours but the organisers have let this slide on this occasion.
I've combined T1 and T2 into the leg times for the next part so we can see reality versus prediction.
Swim start to Bike Start 55 Minutes predicted 00:49:00.1 Reality 6 Minutes Faster
This is great, I destroyed my aimed for Swim and Transition time, being almost 11% faster. When you look at the breakdown further (based on a shouted time check exiting the water), my swim is even better, transition much worse.
Swim Start to Swim Exit 50 Minutes Predicted 40 Minutes Reality 10 Minutes Faster
T1 5 Minutes Predicted 00:09:00.1 Reality 4 Minutes Slower
So my swim was 20 percent faster and transition was almost 100% slower than expected. I'm dead chuffed with the swim time and happy enough with the transition. I'll assume a 10 minute T1 for future races. Its enough time to de-dizzy, fuel up and get my head straight before heading off on the bike.
Bike Start to Bike End 3 hrs 36 predicted 03:48:42.65 Reality 13 Minutes Slower
So the bike was slightly off as well, about 5% slower than predicted. Now in this case the chip timed the split from start to finish with no Transtion overlap. Considering this was a fairly flat course, I will need to pick up my bike ability for Ironman in September,as that course is nowt but hills.
Bike End to Run End 2hrs 32 Minutes Predicted 03:17:57.40 Reality 36 Minutes Slower
I've included transition in this, because of how the chip does the timing. This was an awful split. almost 24% slower than aimed for. I had an injury at this point so maybe not that bad but still not a great end to the race.
So my overall time was 07:55:40.15 which is 52 minutes slower than aimed for, which is 12% slower overall.
As for my rankings within the disciplines, I've worked out that I was faster than 11 people on the swim leg, 5 people on the bike leg and the slowest on the run leg. This has never been about topping the podium, but it would be nice to be finishing in front of some more folk at the next event. However we shall have to see, as the next event is the Long Course Weekend in Tenby. Our Report on our recon mission from 10th June is coming soon, so stay tuned.
What about Swashbuckler as a barometer for Ironman Wales. If we ignore the hills in Wales, ignore that the run was 22k rather than 21.1 at Swashbuckler and ignore that its really only meant for running,Riegel's formula gives a predicted end time of 16 hours 32 Minutes.
That's a bit close to the cut off for my liking, especially with the bike leg being so hilly in Wales. Only one thing to do, keep training away.
On the plus side, Swashbuckler 2016 is my PB for Middle Distance.
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